Following last week,’s announcement that the United States economy was bouncing back, with employment rising by 165,000 and unemployment dropping to 7.5, our Head Economist Richard Nicholls ponders the resilience of the US consumer and the potential impact this will have on the global economy…

Last week’s good employment statistics were the latest sign of resilience from the US economy and the American consumer.  Employment rose by 165,000 in April, well ahead of population growth; and while the number of government jobs fell by 11,000, the private sector created some 176,000 jobs. 73,000 of these were in professional and business services.

This follows good data on consumer spending in 2013. Despite the increase in payroll taxes as part of the fiscal cliff deal, and now the government cuts mandated by the Sequester, consumer spending has kept rising in real terms month-on-month (0.2% in January, 0.3% in February and 0.3% in March). This is despite aggregate real disposable income falling by 3% since the end of 2013, largely a result of tax increases.

What has happened? A fall in the saving ratio – this now stands at 2.7% as of March, down from an average of 3.9% in 2012. The American consumer so far has absorbed the payroll tax increase. (In contrast, the saving ratio in the UK is around 7%.)

The continued resilience of the American consumer will be crucial to global economic prospects – while more work is needed, there is growing evidence that the US economy is slowly recovering.  Only time will tell what impact this has on the global stage – but this could well be a time for cautious optimism.

For more US, UK or global economic data or predictions, including country-specific economic snapshots please contact the Future Foundation on 0203 008 4889.

The Future Foundation UK conference in November was a sold-out affair, as clients and guests joined us for a day packed with inspiration, ideas and commentary on the hottest new trends. Titled Hot Austerity, the conference focused on the (often ingenious) consumer coping mechanisms that have come to characterise the double-dip recession.

Before the doors had even opened, two of our senior researchers began with a breakfast summit session revealing our first ever wave of kids’ research, exploring the trends shaping the next generation of British consumers.

MD Meabh Quoirin and Account Director Barry Clark began with a deep dive into the top trends for 2013.  Top of the Charts were The Cult of The Home and how a quiet revolution is (re-)positioning the home as a hub for leisure and entertainment; a study of Gen Y – the most financially and digitally savvy generation with a strong tendency towards risk, financial nous and entrepreneurship; and Ish!, a brand new trend which sees consumers increasingly applying a transactional approach to brand relationships.

From our trend incubator nVitro came two emerging trends – The Hyper Individual and The Society of Sobriety, both giving glimpses of a post-recessional consumer, moving away from excess and into the arms of control and empowerment. Meanwhile, the Habit Interruptive session explored what’s new in the debate about consumer habit and ritual, particularly through the lens of Hot Austerity.  Nick Chiarelli examined why consumers develop habits, how loyalty and choice operate and how brands can interrupt the flow.

Our Chair Melanie Howard took to the stage for an interactive session, putting the spotlight on the future of work and inviting guests to visualise their versions of the workplace of the coming decade.  And James Murphy capped off with a full rundown of the economic outlook, essential for marketers operating in the double-dip doldrums.

For a full deck of slides or more information, please contact Karen Canty – karenc@futurefoundation.net

You can watch a highlights video as well as summary thoughts from each of the speakers: Hot Austerity – highlights from the Future Foundation conference

http://www.youtube.com/user/FFvision?feature=mhee

Our guest blogger this month is author, entrepreneur and ideas guru Tim Drake. His distinguished and varied career has seen him head up the Client Services team at global advertising  agency BBDO; set up a retail business which achieved a turnover of £17m; establish 3 think tanks for CEOs; and pen a number of  groundbreaking books including You Can Be As Young As You Think, and, most recently, How to Make A Difference.  Here Tim explores some of the guiding principles behind How to Make a Difference.  Tim is also a Future Foundation nVoy.

Yes, there’s a growing desire to make a difference and add value to society. And it could be game changing.

My book How to Make a Difference takes a close look at this, and uses Future Foundation research as a starting point to do so. The Future Foundation research in question confirms that in 1980 people who felt, either strongly or moderately, that they wanted to “fulfill myself as an individual” amounted to just 30% of the population. By 2011 that figure was 60%. Conversely, people saying “I want to own more things than I do now” has declined.

There are several reasons for this. A major one would be that long term rising affluence has coincided with debilitating stress brought about the competitive pressures of globalization. This has induced an urgent need to find meaning – a still centre in our lives – where we can get in touch with our purpose and validate our existence as human beings. The rise in social media has accelerated this desire to express and enjoy ourselves through what we experience – travel, culture etc – rather than what we own. And it has been given added impetus by the Gen Y imperative to find identity and fulfillment through collaboration, rather than individual self-expression.

How can brands capture the energies and enthusiasm of people who are turning away from merely material possessions? The answer must lie in helping them make good things happen. This will require a supercharge to the CSR agenda to bring it even more centre stage for brands.

The good news is that it will have to be genuine, because consumers can smell hypocrisy at fifty paces. So the brand management at all levels – and their creative agencies – now have the opportunity to innovate some ground-breaking stuff.  Not only that, they’ll feel good about themselves and their brand because they will know they really are making a difference.

Earlier this month, HMV opened what it called an “engaging new store” in Cambridge which boasts a “high profile tech department and cafe with free Wi-Fi and recharging points alongside other multi-channel features and services”.

The store also includes a click-and-collect service and, in addition to enjoying a coffee as they browse items, customers can peruse a “community blackboard” where local residents and band members can post messages and flyers.

According to a spokesperson, the store will place a special focus on technology devices, with the shopper’s experience being boosted by expert staff and an interactive environment.

With 2012 also having seen Greggs launch a flagship concept store in Newcastle, J C Penney opening dedicated boutiques inside its US department stores and McDonald’s experimenting with table service in its Milton Keynes branch, it seems inevitable that high streets are set to become much more experience-rich and engaging as the 10s progress.