Marc Jacobs, Hermes and Gucci have two things in common : they all sell luxury goods and they are all making headway in China.

As the Chinese economy looks set to record a growth rate in excess of 8% in 2013, these brands have every reason to believe they are moving into fertile territory. However, it is not China’s growth rate per se that should be concerning Western marketers, but the composition of its GDP. There remain widespread concerns that China’s economy is too reliant on state enterprise and investment; and with official statistics reporting that private consumption accounted for just 35% of total GDP in 2012, these are not without justification.

It is against this cautious backdrop that I turn to recent calculations by Morgan Stanley, who found that private consumption actually accounted for 46% of total GDP last year - and this figure is rising. If correct, this points to a significant rebalancing of the Chinese economy and, potentially, to a wealth of opportunity for providers of consumer goods.

A small caveat is necessary at this juncture, however. Significant numbers of firms within emerging markets are also attempting to service middle-class demands, which is intensifying competition and saturating the market. Note here the success of Chinese brands Chery and Lenovo, who are both satisfying domestic appetites while also seeing their footprint grow internationally.

Those firms seeking to make a foray into China will do well to heed the challenges facing and opportunities awaiting them. For whilst The Rebalancing of Global Power is undoubtedly underway, brands must endeavour to speak loudly to aspiration if they are to appeal to the middle-class and High Net Worth psyche in this increasingly crowded marketplace. But for those deciding to undertake such a venture, rest assured that private consumption as a proportion of GDP in China remains a long way behind other mature markets, and this figure is only going one way.

If you are interested in finding out more about how to benefit from the high net worth global tribe, Future Foundation is hosting an event on this topic at the Financial Times’ offices on 26^th April. For more details, please contact Pippa Goodman (pippag@futurefoundation.net 020 3008 4889).

This month our guest blogger is Web Psychologist and Future Foundation nVoy Nathalie Nahai. Nathalie helps businesses to psychologically optimise for better engagement online. Here she explores the gender differences in online behaviour and the important things brands need to know about consumer engagement.

The personalization of the web is one of the fastest growing online trends, and nowhere is this more prevalent than when we’re shopping. When it comes to ecommerce, there’s one area in particular you need to know about if you want to future-proof your business: the gender differences fueling online behaviours.

Falling under the umbrella of ‘individual psychology’, gender differences in how and why we shop have been well documented in the offline world, and now studies are discovering how these differences translate online. As with any research, it’s never one-size-fits-all, and there will always be exceptions to the rule. But if you’re targeting male and female shoppers, there are three things you absolutely need to know if you want to secure your e-tailing future:

1. Women are more sceptical

In general, women tend to be more sceptical of online information than men ([1] – 3(6), pp. 565–82), and perceive online shopping as more risky ([2] 57, pp. 768–75). They’re less likely to part with sensitive information (phone number, address etc), and generally need greater assurance that the site they’re visiting is trustworthy, credible and secure. Men, on the other hand, tend to be less concerned with privacy and are generally more comfortable parting with sensitive information ([3] – 4258, pp. 36–58).

nVision shows us that:
• 20% of men and 13% of women strongly/agree with the statement: “I don’t/wouldn’t worry about the security of banking on a mobile phone” (Disagree/ strongly: men 58%, women 69%)

2. Men shop online more than women

Believe it or not, men appear to be out-shopping their global female counterparts – and not only on desktops and laptops, but via smartphones too. Whether it’s because they get to avoid the tedium of malls or because it’s easier to do without leaving the comfort of your sofa, the rise of the affluent, online-shopping male is making headlines not only in research ([4]; [5] – 31(9), pp. 1-15] but also in the wider press ([6]). They’re also spending more on average than women, so if you’re selling your wares online it makes sense to target this market.

nVision data backs this up:

• “How often do you do each of the following internet activities (either on a desktop/laptop, mobile phone or tablet computer)? Buy a product/service online” – at least once weekly: men 41%, women 37%

3. Men do their research

You’ve probably suspected it for a while, but when it comes to online shopping, men really do like to do their research before they buy. Although we all rely on earned media (such as likes, ratings and reviews) to inform our purchasing decisions, it’s men who will go that extra mile to make sure their product really does stand up to scrutiny. And it’s not just adults – research shows that this phenomenon starts young, with boys more likely to refer to the internet before making a purchase than girls. Not only that, but they’re also more likely to be influenced by the reviews and comments they find online than their female peers ([7].

Turning to nVision, we see:
• 73% of men say “I shop around extensively to get the best deals”
• Our kids research reveals that 37% of boys and 34% of girls have compared prices online/ used a price comparison site

For more information, contact Karen Canty | karenc@futurefoundation.net.  For more on Nathalie Nahai’s work or her book Webs of Influence: The Psychology of Online Persuasion, visit her website www.thewebpsychologist.com.

A new report out this week claims that less than 1% of online transactions can be traced to a social media post. This seems completely counter-intuitive – as my friend Dirk Singer says on his blog Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics, this is totally counter-intuitive it is. To throw in some stats from Future Foundation:

37% of the UK population agree that they’re always telling friends/family about new products and services they’ve discovered. Another third are ambivalent about the statement which could reasonably be interpreted to mean that they’re sometimes telling people. So that’s a whole lot of viral going on. Can it really be that this just translates to 1% efficacy?

1 in 3 of us say that we’re more influenced now by experts online than 6 months ago. As the power of social media grows, so does the number of very niche experts across so many fields. Why would this still not translate into selling stuff?

And of course, as you say, 1 in 2 of us are keen to share with family and friends. We pass on info about holidays, social lives, places we’ve been, movies we’ve watched, jokes we’ve told etc. Why not purchases we’ve made and recommendations to others?

65% of active social networkers keep up with follow brands on Facebook. And interestingly, those we term Facebook fans of a brand are much more likely than others to agree that they are always sharing details of new products and services with others. This really only converts to 1% purchasing?

You can read the whole conversation here. But the point is that this report takes a step back to the days of purely transactional relationships between brands and consumers. Social media is much richer than that – it allows dialogue, interface, communication, recommendation. None of that stuff appears on the Accounts Dept’s bottom line but perhaps it should.

The nVision International Conference is an opportunity to explore the global factors that are (re-)shaping the consumer landscape.  The biggest story on the world agenda is of course the implications of the global economic slowdown  – but are these growing pains or temporary setbacks?  Our Economics Editor, Richard Nicholls opened the day with good news – there is some room for optimism.  Even at this time of crisis, affluence is rising in most regions – by 2013, the world economy will be 11% larger than in 2007 and the average citizen 4% richer.

Head of Financial Services, Barry Clark then went on to explore consumer interest in new forms of digitalised currency and emerging payment modes, and asking the question – is cash nearly dead?

Other topics in the jam-packed agenda were provenance, protectionism and the power of local; the global leisure parade and the heightened attention being paid not only to the quality and breadth of leisure options but also our ability to more actively broadcast our behaviours to our networks; smart consumption in a digital world; a day in the life of two consumers in 2027; and two hot new trends – Ish! and Concierge Living.

To get a deck of slides of highlights from the day, to discuss any of these topics in more detail or to get information on our next UK conference on 15 November, please contact Karen Canty on 020 3008 6107